Editor’s Note: The Selective Echo blog will provide frequent election updates Nov. 4-5, including the state legislative races in Utah which could provide some surprises as well as the update on vote tallies in California’s Prop 8 battle. As for the presidency, the result should be conclusive in the first half of the 9 p.m. hour Mountain Standard Time. The big question will be if the Democrats get a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. Now for the key indicators:

STATES TO WATCH:

Essentially, the Electoral College contest has come down to 5 states, and this is well documented by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. The states are Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. McCain’s odds are daunting and are extremely long.

To remain competitive through the evening, he would need, at the least, three of those states and they must include Ohio and Pennsylvania. And, to make it an upset, he certainly needs all five (Obama’s chances at winning Arizona are better than McCain’s at winning these five). If Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia tip to Obama, expect an early night.

Essentially, if Obama wins either Ohio or Pennsylvania, he just needs one of the other three. If he does not win Ohio or Pennsylvania (which is highly unlikely), he can still do it with the other three states. Obama has decided no further campaigning is needed in Pennsylvania.

Polling aggregate averages, margins of error generally between 3 and 4 percent in either direction, courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.com:

Colorado: Obama, up by 7,
Nevada: Obama, up by 4.9
Ohio: Obama, up by 5.1
Pennsylvania: Obama, up by 9.4
Virginia: Obama, up by 6.5

In the South, watch for tell-tale signs in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. The conventional wisdom suggests that these states are McCain’s but I’m expecting — contrary to many others — some manifestation of a Reverse Bradley Effect, particularly in Georgia and North Carolina. Note this phenomenon as it was observed during the Democratic primary season was explored in a post last month on this blog:

“Of the 13 states where a reverse Bradley Effect was seen, eight are in the South, have an African-American population of 15 percent or more, and went for Bush in 2004. They are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. In three — Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina — Obama’s underpredicted performance was more than 15 percent off, and Georgia’s neared 20 percent.”

McCain is solid in most Southern states but the three mentioned above could be problematic for him, if indeed Obama’s electoral performance is underpredicted.In Florida, polls suggest a dead-even race now. McCain’s polling average lead is under 5 percent in Georgia, and Obama’s is under two percent in North Carolina. If one of these states breaks significantly toward Obama, an electoral college landslide may be possible.

Incidentally, the one state that is as dead even as it could get in polling is Missouri. The result will be very close there.

U.S. SENATE:

The Democrats get to 58 seats in the new Senate quite easily. The last two will indeed be a challenge as the Democrats need to swing them from among these four contests: Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Mississippi.

The dynamic in the Senate races is shaping up to be much like it was when Reagan won in 1980 and he managed a respectable set of coattails. The Democrats already are solid in taking away seats from GOP incumbents such as Gordon Smith in Oregon and Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.

However, four races indeed may tilt depending upon how well Obama performs at the top of the ticket:

GEORGIA

Saxby Chambliss, the incumbent, has been in the campaign of his life against Jim Martin. If Obama pulls out a win for Georgia’s electoral votes, Martin may follow and give Democrats seat no. 59. Early voting in Georgia has been one of the great stories of this election. The turnout in Georgia surprised election officials who estimated that as many as 35 percent of the state’s 5.7 million registered voters cast their ballots early.

KENTUCKY

The presidential contest is not hot at all in this state so it is safe McCain. Mitch McConnell, the Senate’s minority leader, has been on the ropes for weeks in terms of polling but he recently has stabilized against challenge Bruce Lunsford. Don’t expect an upset here.

MINNESOTA

This is likely where the battle for the 60th seat will be. Al Franken is challenging GOP incumbent Norm Coleman and there is Dean Barkley, a third-party candidate who has made this the toss-up Senate race in the country. The latest Research 2000 poll, with a margin of error of four percent in either direction, has Coleman with 43 percent, Franken with 40 percent, and Barkley with 15 percent. The presidential race here is in no question. Obama’s lead has been well into double digits for months so a coattail may be Franken’s saving grace. There is no question that Barkley will dictate who wins here.

MISSISSIPPI

The only way that challenger Ronnie Musgrove would beat incumbent Roger Wicker is if Obama closes the popular vote gap significantly in this state against McCain. This is one of McCain’s solid holds. But, upsets happened in 1980 and the conditions are ripe for similar occurrences Tuesday. After all, no one expected George McGovern to lose his seat and he did in 1980.

EXIT POLLING RESULTS AND REPORTING:

Beware of Internet rumors on exit polling. Here is the correct protocol. Edison Media Research, along with Mitofsky International, currently conducts all exit polls and election projections for six major news organizations — ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and the Associated Press that participate in the National Election Pool.

All states will be polled — more than 1,300 precincts nationwide including 50 precincts in the most competitive states. Less competitive, smaller states will have proportionately fewer precincts.

Data will be disseminated to the news organizations at 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. The subscribing news organizations have signed an agreement that they will not release or publish any exit-poll data that will characterize the outcome of any race until all polls in that state have closed. In the following hours, the organization will track actual vote returns at the precinct level to be able to adjust for any non-response bias sources in several states. In the 8 p.m. hour in the Eastern Time Zone, most news organizations will have a clear picture of where the race is trending. Keep in mind that at this point the media will start calling races in this time zone even as Western voters continue going to the polls.

The one factor in this election is that so few Western states are in contention. Nevada and Colorado are the only two states where the outcome has yet to be predicted with any high degree of certainty. Although, Arizona has recently come into play. The rest of the West can be called for either candidate with solid confidence.

CALIFORNIA PROP 8:

Because of the LDS Church’s extensive involvement in this issue campaign, Utahns will be following the results of this vote. The two most respected polls — the California Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California — show the measure going down to defeat, which would mean that the state can continue to recognize same-sex marriage as legal. However, the polls show gaps (5 and 8 percent, respectively) that could be closed in the final hours of the campaign.

Here, turnout in the presidential race could be a major determinant in the outcome of this issue debate. Obama is expected to take the state’s 55 electoral votes in perhaps the largest margin of any president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1936. However, if news organizations call the presidential race at, say, 9 p.m. in the Eastern Time Zone, that could dampen turnout which, in turn, could give Prop 8 supporters a chance to close the gap and win passage. Polls will still be open for another two hours in California so timing may be a factor.