Editor’s Note: Mark Alvarez, our regular correspondent from Mexico, has a great piece on recent remarks and reports that suggest Mexico is on its way to becoming a failed state. Please note, in particular, the last paragraph.

Mexicans of diverse ethnicities, cultures, traditions and regions will ensure that the United Mexican States endures.

Drug trafficking, gun trafficking and violence threaten Mexico. In 2008, the number of drug-related murders in Mexico doubled to more than 5600. The Mexican newspaper Milenio counted 480 drug-related murders in January, an increase from 247 in 2008 and 204 in 2007.

Nearly two-thirds of the January 2009 murders occurred in Chihuahua, Sonora and Baja California, Mexican states that border California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. As drugs flow north and weapons south across the U.S.-Mexican frontier, alarms sound about the possible spread of violence.

In November 2008 the U.S. Joint Forces Command released a report that identified Pakistan and Mexico as two large potentially weak or failed states that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse.” Prominent commentators have raised alarm.

Former U.S. Drug Czar Barry McCaffrey visited Mexico in early December. His report made excellent points about drug-related crime, Mexico’s determination to confront drug cartels, modest U.S. support for Mexico and the wisdom of improving U.S.-Mexican relations. McCaffrey was speculative in raising the possibility of a narco state. He exaggerated in claiming that Mexico “is fighting for survival against narcoterrorism” and in warning about “millions of refugees crossing the U.S. border.”

Former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich wisely has stated that the U.S. has “a vested interest in helping [Mexicans] find a way to be prosperous, safe and live within their own law.” Gingrich seeks to rethink the U.S.-Mexican relationship, and he acknowledges that much of the Mexican problem is “financed by American money, purchasing drugs in the [U.S.].” Gingrich overstates in claiming that Mexico is at war.

Concern about the fate of Mexico is wise; however, the Joint Forces Command report was admittedly “speculative in nature.” The essential part about Mexico reads:

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

Mexican President Felipe Calderon understands the threat to Mexico’s image. He has reacted by instructing Mexican diplomats to project a positive image of Mexico. Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora has said that greater effort to combat drug trafficking is the cause of violence, as cartels have begun fighting among themselves. Evidence supports this thesis. Murder scenes often include clear or coded messages between cartels. Signs accuse the police of protecting or favoring certain cartels. Violence has increased markedly since the Mexican government started its crackdown against the cartels in December 2006. Cartels are fighting for shrinking turf.

President Calderon has subscribed to the philosophy of a war on drugs. The Calderon administration has involved the Mexican army in the struggle, largely because of corruption within state and local police forces: Mexicans remain skeptical of police. They seem to trust the military. So the military fight the drug cartels, the drug cartels fight each other and Mexican residents get daily reminders of violence.

Every day, certain tabloids publish consequences of the drug war. Decapitated bodies, bodies in blood, bodies tied up, lacerated bodies, bodies with bagged heads and bodies that could compete with Hollywood’s most grotesque offerings appear in color on the front and back covers of Mexican dailies.

Many of the victims of violence are poor, but the drug trade produces wealth in the tens of billions of dollars. The cartels have the money and power to corrupt. Those who refuse have three options: overwhelming security (frequently ineffective), flight and death.

In November 2008, Mexico witnessed several prominent officials arrested for links to drug cartels. A former Mexican Drug Czar was arrested for leaks concerning investigations and operations. A drug cartel allegedly paid him $450,000 and a monthly fee, possibly in six figures. The top Interpol liaison with the Mexican Federal Police and the second in command at the Federal Investigative Agency were also arrested in ongoing efforts called “Operation Clean House” in English.

The Mexican government admirably is trying to fight corruption in its ranks. The struggle is difficult. Last Thursday, the lead story in the Mexican newspaper Reforma was “Drug cartels control railroad lines.” The byline read, “Staff.” Governments exert less control over rail lines than they do over roads and airports. In addition, this may provide a route into the U.S. Reforma Staff reported, “U.S. customs fines railroad companies $1000 for each ounce of cocaine found in its cars and $500 for each ounce of marijuana. In 2008, Union Pacific ran up fines of more that $38,000,000 for drugs founds in its cars coming from Mexico.”

The statistics and anecdotes deserve further analysis. Mexico clearly has a problem with drug cartels and violence. But Mexicans in general are not banding in groups to fight each other. More likely, Mexicans will band together to survive the crisis.

This morning, the Mexican newspaper El Universal reported on Villanueva, a village in the state of Zacatecas. Last week to respond to increasing violence, hundreds of people from Villanueva banded together to demand an end to crime and corruption. They asked for military help against 42 local police officers who allegedly colluded with criminals. The military assisted, and there will be a thorough investigation of the police department. The people demonstrated and claimed, “the people have awoken. They will not take more. They reject crime and threats to public safety.” People in Villanueva stood together. Despite difficulty, people in Mexico will as well.

February 3, 2009 Update:

Today, El Universal reported that the police chief of Villanueva had been assassinated. Police Chief Romulo Madrid Olave was killed as he left his house at 10:30am yesterday. El Universal quoted an unnamed source: “This seems like a message to all the villagers who protested, or maybe to the police or the military. With or without security forces, organized crime continues to send its signs.”

The question is how the community will respond. In time.